Seasonal Climate Forecast

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

Summer 2025-2026 Outlook

for

Mauritius and Rodrigues

INTRODUCTION

The primary objective of the Seasonal Outlook is to provide an indication of the behaviour of the summer 2025-2026 in Mauritius and Rodrigues, namely: cyclone activity, summer rainfall and temperature.  This report is a climate forecast and outlines the behaviour of the upcoming summer season for planning in various sectors and for information to the public at large.

Summer season in Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St Brandon is from 01 November to 30 April of the following year. However, the official cyclone season in the Republic of Mauritius is from 01 November to 15 May of the following year, where the risk of tropical cyclone formation is highest. It is to be noted that tropical storms may form and be named outside this period.

The behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters in analogue years have been utilised to generate the most likely scenario for the summer 2025-2026. Global, regional and local predictors have also been analysed in the process of the preparation of this outlook.

OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2025-2026

After careful analysis of the behaviour of all indicators and taking into consideration analogue patterns, it is concluded that:

1. Temperatures will be slightly above the normal. On certain days, it is likely that temperatures will exceed the long-term monthly average by more than two to three degrees Celsius.  In such situation, the maximum temperatures during the day may be around 36 degrees Celsius along the western coasts.  At Rodrigues, the maximum temperatures during the day may be around 33 degrees Celsius along coastal areas on certain occasions.

Above normal temperatures together with prolonged periods of high humidity and light wind conditions mainly during January to March 2026, may result in torrid conditions that will cause severe discomfort mainly to the vulnerable groups of the population.

1. The onset of summer rain is expected to be slightly delayed, that is during the second fortnight of December 2025.  The rainfall in Mauritius during the first half of summer (November 2025 to January 2026) is expected to be below normal. The cumulative summer rainfall (November 2025 to April 2026) over Mauritius is expected to slightly below normal (around 85 percent) amounting to about 1150 mm and in Rodrigues, it will be close to the normal (around 90 percent), which amounts to about 745 mm.
2. The total number of named storms over the South West Indian Ocean basin is likely to be between eleven (11) and thirteen (13).  It is to be noted that the:

1. Mauritius Meteorological Services has already named three (3) storms before start of this summer;
2. cyclones/storms will have a unique name in the southern Indian Ocean;
3. named storms will not necessarily directly affect the islands of the Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St Brandon.

1. Heavy swells generated by tropical cyclones evolving in in the vicinity of the islands of Republic of Mauritius may affect their shores.  The cyclones may also cause storm surges while passing very close to the islands.

1. In addition, it is very likely that other extreme weather events in the form of warm spells, heavy/torrential rain, violent thunderstorms, electric storms, mini tornadoes, rapid intensification of tropical cyclones may occur.  Short-duration high-intensity rainfall will cause localised flash floods.  

Note: This report may be updated upon the availability of fresh information. 

03 November 2025

Mauritius Meteorological Services

St Paul Road

Vacoas

Mauritius