Winter 2026 - Seasonal Outlook for Mauritius and Rodrigues

1. Introduction

The Seasonal Outlook for this Winter 2026 gives an insight of the expected evolution of the climate during the winter months in Mauritius and Rodrigues. The content of this outlook is meant to be used as general guidance for planning purposes by stakeholders in various socio- economic sectors.

      2. Background

A seasonal outlook is a climate forecast that aims to estimate the likelihood of a climatic event happening in the coming months. The seasonal forecast provides information on how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than normal. A climate forecast is not an attempt to forecast the detailed day-to-day evolution of weather.

Winter season in Mauritius and Rodrigues occurs from 01 May to 31 October. The weather during winter is often characterised by persistent trade winds emanating from anticyclones transiting the South Indian Ocean from west to east. Temperatures are cooler, especially during the months of June to September. May and October are generally considered as transition months.

The behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the identification of analogue years are the key factors used to generate the most likely scenario for the winter. Global, regional and local predictors are analyzed in the process of the preparation of this outlook.

       3.Conclusions

Based on analysis of linear regression models of the meteorological and oceanic parameters that drive our climate in the southwest Indian Ocean and climate forecast from various model products from Global Producers of Long-Range Forecast, the most likely outlook for winter 2026 is as follows:

1. Observed trends of meteorological parameters in the region indicate that wintry weather conditions will be slightly delayed and will establish towards the end of May 2026.
2. Winter 2026 rainfall over Mauritius is expected to be slightly below normal with a cumulative rainfall of around 535 mm, representing 80 % of the LTM. Rain will be mainly over the Central Plateau, to the East and the South.
3. The cumulative rainfall for winter 2026 at Rodrigues is expected to be near normal with around 440 mm, representing 90% of the LTM.
4. Temperatures will be above normal for Mauritius. The expected day and night temperatures are as per Table 1.

            Table 1: Expected monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures (°C) over Mauritius.

      c. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has stated that the occurrences of extreme weather at global scale is on an alarming increasing trend, rising sea levels are also increasingly threatening coastal areas with coastal inundation and wave damage. In this context, Mauritius and Rodrigues are likely to experience extremes weather events during Winter 2026 that include moderate to heavy rainfall, significant temperature variations, strong winds and heavy swells.

This report will be updated upon availability of fresh information.

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