Summer 2022-2023 Outlook

 

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

Summer 2022-2023 Outlook

for

Mauritius and Rodrigues

 

INTRODUCTION

This Seasonal Outlook gives an indication of the expected evolution of the 2022-2023 South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) summer namely: cyclone activity, summer rain and temperature in Mauritius and Rodrigues. This is a climate forecast that estimates the likelihood of the climatic events in the coming months. It is NOT an attempt to forecast the detailed day-to-day evolution of the weather. The contents of this outlook are meant to be used as general guidelines for planning purposes by stakeholders in various sectors and for information to the public at large.

Summer season in Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St Brandon is from 01 November to 30 April of the following year. However, the official cyclone season is from 01 November to 15 May of the following year.

The behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the behaviour of meteorological and oceanic parameters in analogue years have been utilised to generate the most likely scenario for the 2022-2023 Southwest Indian Ocean summer. Global, regional and local predictors are analysed in the process of the preparation of this outlook.

 

SUMMER 2022-2023 OUTLOOK

After careful analysis of the behaviour of all indicators and taking into consideration analogue patterns, it is concluded that:

1) Temperatures will be close to normal. However, on certain days, it is likely that temperatures will exceed the long-term monthly average by more than two degrees Celsius. In such situation, the maximum temperatures during the day may reach 35 degrees Celsius along the western coasts. At Rodrigues on certain occasions, the maximum temperatures during the day may reach 32 degrees Celsius along coastal areas.

 

Occasional above normal temperatures together with prolonged periods of high humidity and light wind conditions, may result in torrid conditions particularly during the months January to March that will cause severe discomfort mainly to the vulnerable groups of the population.

2) The onset of summer rain will be delayed and expected during the third week of December 2022. Cumulative summer rainfall is expected to be slightly below normal with about 1150 mm over Mauritius and around 550 mm over Rodrigues.

 

3) During January to April 2023, atmospheric conditions will become conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as violent thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Short duration heavy rainfall will cause localised flash floods.

 

 

 

4) The number of named storms evolving in the South West Indian Ocean basin for the 2022-2023 cyclone season (01 November 2022 to 15 May 2023) is likely to be between nine (9) and eleven (11). During the first half of summer, the eastern part of the basin is more conducive for cyclone formation and, during the second half, the western part of the basin will also become favourable for storm formation. As at now two (2) storms have already been named in that region during the month of September and October 2022.

 

5) The impacts of Global Warming are being felt worldwide including the South West Indian Ocean region where the frequency of extreme weather and climate events is increasing since the last few decades. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states the global surface temperature will continue to rise resulting in larger changes in climate systems. Consequently, extreme weather events in the form of heavy rainfall leading to flash flood, violent thunderstorms, electric storms, mini tornadoes, rapid intensification of tropical cyclones may occur during summer 2022-2023.

 

6) Heavy swells generated by tropical cyclones evolving in the vicinity of the Mascarene Islands may affect the shores of the islands of the Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St Brandon.

 

Note:

1) All named storms that will develop in the Southwest Indian Ocean will NOT necessarily be a direct threat to the islands of the Republic of Mauritius; and

2) All cyclones/storms will have a unique name in the southern Indian Ocean.

 

This report may be updated upon the availability of fresh information.

29 October 2022

Mauritius Meteorological Services

Vacoas

Other News:

• World Meteorological Day 2022