Winter 2010 - Seasonal Outlook

Background

Mauritius lies along the 20 parallel and enjoys a tropical maritime climate. At this latitude there are only two seasons, summer and winter with transition months in between them.

On the eve of each season, the Mauritius Meteorological Services issues seasonal outlooks which provide an insight into what should be expected during the ensuing month. The contents of the outlook are meant to be used by stakeholders in various sectors as general guidelines for planning purposes.

The present outlook broadly describes the general weather conditions that are expected to prevail during winter 2010. The forecasts are expressed as departures from the long-term mean winter conditions and are based on meteorological information at local, regional and global scales, and inputs from World Meteorological Centers.

Mid-May is the period when we step into winter.

Conclusion

This outlook applies to both Mauritius and Rodrigues

Considering that neutral conditions are to start prevailing with a slight delay following the recent El Nino conditions, it is expected that winter 2010 will be a normal one. During such a winter the following are the probable range and characteristics of parameters:

1. Anticyclones will follow at a more or less regular succession of around 6-9 days provoking on some occasions rough seas with heavy swells from the south seas.

2. Day and night temperatures will be close to normal. In between anticyclones light wind and clear sky conditions will dominate and may result on a few occasions minimum temperatures dropping to about 10 degrees Celsius in the inland parts of the island.

3. Occasionally, during episodes of strong anticyclones in the months of July and August, rather strong trades over the Mascarenes will provoke wet and chilly conditions thus increasing the sensation of cold

4. Cumulative rainfall will be near the long term seasonal mean during the whole winter. The normal values of winter rainfall over Mauritius and Rodrigues are 665 mm and 380 mm respectively. However, most of the winter rains will be concentrated to the East, South and Central Plateau.

5. The occurence of strong wind gusts of the order of 90 kilometers per hour, which are usually experienced especially in July and August, will be less frequent.

Mauritius Meteorological Services

Vacoas

12  May 2010