Seasonal Climate Forecast

Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2026-2027

for Mauritius and Rodrigues

INTRODUCTION

The Seasonal Outlook gives an indication of the behaviour of the summer 2026-2027 in Mauritius and Rodrigues, namely: cyclone activity, summer rainfall and temperature. It is a climate forecast that aims to guide planning for the upcoming summer season in various sectors and provides information to the public at large.
The summer season for the Republic of Mauritius starts from 01 November to 30 April of the following year. However, the official cyclone season lasts from 01 November to 15 May of the following year during which the risk of tropical cyclone formation is highest. It is to be noted that tropical storms may form and be named outside this period.
The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has assessed the behaviour of global predictors such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is one of the main predictors that affect the weather around the world. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of ENSO occurring over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Depending on its intensity, the ENSO also affects various basins, including the Indian Ocean.
The current El Niño episode began developing in June 2026 and the latest reports from Global Centres indicate that it has now strengthened to very strong intensity and is expected to continue intensifying through summer 2026-2027.
In the preparation of this outlook, the MMS has also studied the behaviour regional predictors and the local meteorological and oceanic parameters during analogue years to generate the most likely scenario for the summer 2026-2027.

OUTLOOK FOR SUMMER 2026-2027

After careful analysis of the behaviour of all predictors and taking into consideration the patterns during analogous years, it is concluded that:

1. Temperatures will be above normal. On certain days, it is likely that temperatures will exceed the long-term monthly average by more than three (3) degrees Celsius. In such a situation, daytime maximum temperatures may reach around 36 degrees Celsius along the western coasts. At Rodrigues, maximum daytime temperatures may reach around 33 degrees Celsius along coastal areas on certain occasions.
The occasional above-normal temperatures, together with prolonged periods of high humidity and light wind conditions from December 2026 to March 2027, may result in torrid conditions that will cause severe discomfort mainly to the vulnerable groups of the population.

2. The onset of summer rain is expected to be during the last week of November 2026. The summer rainfall is expected to be below normal for Mauritius, with a cumulative summer rainfall of about 1100mm (80%). In Rodrigues, the summer rainfall is expected to be slightly above normal, with about 930mm (115%).

3. The total number of named storms over the South West Indian Ocean basin is likely to be between five (5) and seven (7). It is to be noted that:
a. Meteo Madagascar has already named one (1) storm before the start of this summer (the Moderate Tropical Storm AGUEDA on 20 October 2026);
b. The region West of Diego Garcia seems to be more conducive to storm formation;
c. Cyclones/storms will have a unique name in the southern Indian Ocean; and
d. Named storms will NOT necessarily directly affect the islands of the Republic of Mauritius.

4. Heavy swells generated by tropical cyclones evolving in the vicinity of the islands of the Republic of Mauritius may affect their shores. The cyclones may also cause storm surges if they pass very close to the islands.

5. The impacts of global warming are being observed worldwide with frequent extreme weather and climate events. Likewise, it is very likely that we will experience extreme weather events in the form of warm spells, heavy/torrential rain, violent thunderstorms, electric storms, mini tornadoes and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Moreover, short-duration high-intensity rainfall may cause localised flash floods.
Note: This report may be updated upon the availability of fresh information.

Mauritius Meteorological Services

St Paul Road
Vacoas
Mauritius
27 October 2026